Lightning doesn't strike twice. That's all I'm going to say.
Have you seen Blizzard's track record? Lightning's been striking away ever since Warcraft II, if I'm understanding your metaphor correctly.
Kith: Oh yeah, that reminds me, I read an article about how free to play is extremely profitable. Apparently the US just hasn't gotten over the stigma that free-to-play games have just yet. In Chinese markets it shows that even if 10 people play for free, 1 of them is a paying customer for vanity items and whatnot. That alone is enough for them to not just stay afloat, but to recruit people with ease and further those numbers to 1,000,000 free players to 100,000 paying customers. One big thing about subscriptions is that it scares people away from trying it, so it has to rely entirely upon opening day recruitment and hype. If a subscription MMO these days falls short on people on the day of release, they're screwed.
Only problem is the USA stigma that free-to-play = low quality. In eastern countries, selling things in the box is unheard of, and subscriptions are extremely rare. I live in the wrong country.
So yeah... I'll stop typing now.